Bitcoin Dips Below $68K as Dollar Posts 1.5% Weekly Gain

What Happened

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $68,136.49 as of March 6, 2026, struggling to recover after dipping to an intraday low of $67,757.82. The asset has faced intense sell-side pressure, coinciding with a resurgence in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which posted a weekly gain of approximately 1.5%—its sharpest rise in 12 months.

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The decline in risk assets follows the release of the February 2026 US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which revealed a loss of 92,000 jobs, significantly missing the consensus estimate of a 60,000 gain. Despite the recessionary signal, capital fled to the US Dollar rather than crypto, driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Consequently, Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $227.9 million on March 5, 2026, exacerbating the downward momentum.

Background

The current market structure reflects a broader correction from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,073. Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 44% below that peak. The macro environment has shifted from risk-on to capital preservation, evidenced by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 14 (Extreme Fear) as of March 6, 2026.

Network fundamentals remain strained. While price has corrected, network difficulty remains near all-time highs, increasing to 145.04 T on March 6, 2026, following a 0.45% adjustment. This disparity has compressed miner margins, pushing hashprice to a critical low of $30.18 per PH/s/Day on March 2, 2026, a level where many older generation machines operate at a loss.

The Bull Case

Despite the bearish price action, some market observers see the current capitulation as a cyclical bottoming signal. Lucky, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, argues that the current sentiment readings are counter-indicators. He notes that "Extreme Fear" levels of 14/100 have historically marked long-term accumulation zones for patient capital.

Institutional researchers also maintain a constructive long-term view. Grayscale Research anticipates Bitcoin exceeding previous highs in the first half of 2026. Their analysis suggests that the next leg up will be driven by deepening institutional adoption rather than solely by Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Furthermore, JPMorgan analysts noted recently that Bitcoin's correlation with the dollar has shown signs of flipping positive in specific safe-haven regimes, suggesting BTC could eventually rally alongside the USD if the currency debasement narrative takes hold over the geopolitical one.

The Bear Case

Conversely, the immediate outlook remains clouded by macro headwinds. Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst at IG, warns that the geopolitical situation is the primary driver. He predicts that if the Middle Eastern conflict persists, it will sustain higher inflation expectations and a stronger USD, effectively taking Fed rate cuts off the table despite the weak jobs data.

On the technical front, OneUp Trader highlights that the daily chart remains in a clear bearish structure. They point out that price is trading below both the 50-day moving average ($80,000) and the 200-day moving average ($101,000), signaling that bears remain in control of the trend.

Additionally, Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit, points to on-chain stress. Tan notes that negative hashrate growth is a sign that miners are beginning to unplug hardware due to the profitability squeeze. If this miner capitulation accelerates, it could lead to further sell pressure as operations liquidate treasury holdings to cover operational costs.

What to Watch

Investors should monitor the Bitcoin network hashrate closely over the next 14 days. A significant drop would confirm miner capitulation, often a precursor to a market bottom. Additionally, the market's reaction to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will be critical; the central bank must now weigh the inflationary pressure of conflict against the deflationary signal of the -92k NFP print.