Bitcoin Faces 30% Crash to $47K in 'Bust' Phase, ZX Squared Warns
ZX Squared Capital founder CK Zheng warns Bitcoin could fall another 30% to $47,000, citing the historical four-year cycle and geopolitical risks as the asset trades at $68,027 on March 07, 2026.
- 01Bitcoin trades at $68,027 as of March 07, 2026, marking a 46% drawdown from its October 2025 peak of $126,000.
- 02ZX Squared Capital predicts a further 30% decline to the $47,000 range, driven by the 'bust' phase of the four-year cycle.
- 03U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.47 billion in net inflows for the two weeks ending March 05, 2026, despite falling prices.
- 04Standard Chartered revised its 2026 price target down to $150,000 from $300,000 as of December 09, 2025.
What Happened
Bitcoin is trading at $68,027, down 3.09% in the last 24 hours as of March 07, 2026, as investment firm ZX Squared Capital forecasts significantly more pain ahead. CK Zheng, the firm's founder, predicted a further 30% drop for the asset, which would push prices down to the $47,000 level. Zheng attributes this potential decline to the "bust" phase of Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle, exacerbated by escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
:::chart BTC 1y
Background
The market is currently navigating a severe correction following the cycle peak. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $126,000 in October 2025 before shedding approximately 46% of its value by March 07, 2026. Despite the bearish price action, institutional interest remains sticky; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.47 billion in net inflows over the two weeks ending March 05, 2026, reversing five previous weeks of outflows. However, Bitcoin continues to behave like a risk asset, with a 30-day rolling correlation to the S&P 500 of 0.55 as of March 01, 2026.
The Bull Case
Despite the correction, some macro analysts believe the structural demand has changed. Tom Lee of Fundstrat argues that institutional adoption and ETF flows are breaking the traditional four-year cycle, maintaining a target of $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026. Similarly, Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, while revising his target downward, still sees Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end 2026, viewing the current drawdown as a standard mid-cycle adjustment rather than a cycle-ending crash.
The Bear Case
Skeptics argue that liquidity cycles remain the dominant force. Beyond CK Zheng's 30% drop prediction, Barry Bannister of Stifel suggests a potential floor could be as low as $38,000, based on a 15-year trendline of cycle bottoms. Steven McClurg of Canary Capital also expects 2026 to represent the "bear leg" of the cycle, forecasting prices to drift into the $50,000–$60,000 range by summer 2026. On-chain data supports this caution, with Glassnode reporting that 43% of Bitcoin's supply was held at a loss as of March 07, 2026.
What to Watch
Traders should monitor the $50,000 psychological support level, which aligns with the lower bound of McClurg's summer target. Additionally, the divergence between ETF inflows and price action suggests a battle between spot buyers and derivative-led selling; if inflows sustain above the $1 billion weekly mark observed in early March, it could invalidate the deeper bearish thesis.