Bitcoin Holds $68K for Polymarket Win Despite 4% Drop on March 6
Bitcoin traded at $68,298 on March 6, 2026, securing a "Yes" resolution on Polymarket's $68k contract despite a 4% intraday drop triggered by weak U.S. labor data and options expiry volatility.
- 01Bitcoin traded at $68,298 as of March 06, 2026, securing a 'Yes' resolution on Polymarket.
- 02The asset fell 4.05% in 24 hours, marking the largest daily drop since early February 2026.
- 03$2.6 billion in crypto options expired on March 6, with BTC closing below the $69,000 max pain price.
- 04U.S. labor data released March 6 showed a loss of 92,000 jobs, missing expectations of a 59,000 gain.
What Happened
Bitcoin (BTC) successfully defended the $68,000 level on March 6, 2026, trading at $68,298 at the time of the contract resolution. This price action secured a "Yes" outcome for the Polymarket contract "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6?," which settled with 100% certainty.
Despite the prediction market win, the broader market faced significant sell pressure. Bitcoin recorded a 4.25% daily decline at its intraday low on March 6, 2026, dropping to approximately $68,131.30—its largest percentage decrease since early February 2026, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index. Trading volume stood at $46.7 billion for the day.
:::chart BTC 7d
Background
The volatility coincided with the expiry of $2.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options on March 6. Data from TradingView indicates the "max pain" point for BTC was $69,000, a level the asset failed to reclaim by the daily close.
Macroeconomic headwinds also intensified. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data on March 6 showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, significantly missing the expected gain of 59,000. This economic contraction, coupled with rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions, has dampened risk appetite. Notably, Bitcoin is currently trading 46.04% below its all-time high of $126,272.76, set on October 6, 2025.
The Bull Case
Despite the intraday drawdown, some macro analysts maintain a high-conviction upside outlook. Henrik Zeberg, a macroeconomist, projects that the current correction is a precursor to a violent rally. He forecasts Bitcoin could target the $110,000–$120,000 range later in March 2026, driven by what he terms "Risk-On Fever" and sustained institutional ETF inflows.
The Bear Case
Conversely, Timothy St. John of FX Leaders argues that Bitcoin is in a "dangerous place" after losing the psychological $70,000 support level. He cites depleted investor sentiment and the correlation with falling equities as key risks. Supporting this view, derivatives analytics firm GreeksLive noted on March 6 that call option selling has dominated the last 48 hours, suggesting that sophisticated traders are betting on slowing momentum rather than a quick rebound.
What to Watch
Traders should monitor the $68,000 support level closely; a confirmed break below this zone could open the path to the mid-$60k region. Additionally, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional equities—currently high due to the weak jobs report—will be a critical metric to watch in the coming week.