Bitcoin Polymarket $110K March Bet Collapses to 0% as BTC Holds $70k
Bitcoin traders have abandoned bets on a $110,000 March rally as BTC consolidates near $70,843. Polymarket probabilities hit 0% on March 25, 2026, amid Fed hawkishness and post-ATH correction.
- 01Bitcoin is trading at $70,843 as of March 25, 2026, up 1.39% in 24 hours.
- 02Polymarket probability for BTC hitting $110k in March 2026 is 0% as of March 25, 2026.
- 03Bernstein analysts maintain a $150,000 year-end 2026 price target.
- 04Federal Reserve revised 2026 rate-cut projections from two to one on March 18, 2026.
What Happened
Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $70,843 as of March 18, 2026, reflecting a +1.39% 24h change Phemex. Market capitalization stands at $1.417 trillion, with 24h trading volume reaching $40.08 billion Phemex. With twelve days remaining in the month, the required 55% rally to reach $110,000 is statistically improbable within the current consolidation range.
Background
The asset spent mid-March 2026 consolidating between $66,000 and $76,000 Blockchain Reporter. This follows a correction from the cycle high of approximately $126,000 reached in October 2025, marking a 45-47% decline from peak values DL News. Macro headwinds intensified after the Federal Reserve's March 18, 2026, FOMC meeting, which resulted in a hawkish hold and maintained its projection of one rate cut for 2026, consistent with its previous December forecast, citing energy-driven inflation risks Schwab.
The Bull Case
Despite the stagnation, Bernstein analysts maintain a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026 CCN. They argue the recent 45% correction represents the "weakest bear case in history," citing robust institutional demand via ETF inflows as the primary driver for recovery. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs showed signs of recovery in mid-March, with over $1.5 billion recorded, marking the strongest month since October 2025.
The Bear Case
Conversely, Barry Bannister at Stifel targets $38,000 for Bitcoin, citing the asset's 15-year trendline and increasing correlation with the Nasdaq 100. CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital warns of a potential further 30% decline from current levels due to ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
What to Watch
Traders should monitor weekly ETF flow data for signs of sustained institutional accumulation. A break below the $66,000 support level could invalidate the near-term bullish thesis. Additionally, market participants will watch for any deviation from the Fed's projected single rate cut in 2026.