Bitcoin risks $60K retest as weekly death cross forms despite ETF inflows

What Happened

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $67,238 as of March 8, 2026, reflecting a 1.00% decline over the last 24 hours. The asset is currently consolidating after a volatile week that saw price action rejected from a monthly high of $74,000 on March 4. This rejection followed a short-squeeze event that liquidated approximately $110 million in bearish positions, according to CapitalStreetFX.

Despite the pullback, trading volume remains robust at $30.6 billion over the past day. However, market sentiment has deteriorated significantly; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a score of 14 (Extreme Fear) on March 6, the lowest level seen in months. Technical damage has also mounted, with Bitcoin failing to reclaim the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently sits as formidable resistance at $72,604.

:::chart BTC 7d

Background

The current price action is unfolding against a backdrop of conflicting signals between on-chain flows and technical indicators. While price struggles, institutional demand remains verifiable. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of nearly $500 million on Wednesday, March 4, pushing total inflows for the month above $1.1 billion as of March 5, per data from TradingView/Farside Investors.

However, market structure is being compressed by derivatives positioning. Analysis reveals that the $75,000 level has become a major "gamma magnet," holding $2.3 billion in negative gamma for the March 27 expiry. Additionally, on-chain data indicates a drying up of sell-side pressure from long-term holders; realized profit has contracted by 63%, dropping from over $1 billion daily to $370 million per day by early March.

The Bull Case

Despite the technical breakdown, macroeconomists remain focused on the liquidity cycle. Henrik Zeberg, a prominent macro economist, projects that the current correction is a precursor to a violent move higher. He maintains a primary scenario targeting $110,000–$120,000 later in March 2026, citing sustained risk-on sentiment and the sheer volume of ETF absorption as catalysts.

James Van Straten, Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, argues that the market is forming a "quiet bottom." He notes that volatility metrics are declining while the asset stabilizes above the $60,000 psychological floor, suggesting this consolidation is building the foundation for a powerful market shift rather than a capitulation event.

The Bear Case

Conversely, technical analysts are sounding alarms regarding long-term trend damage. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, warns that a "death cross" involving the 21-week and 100-week simple moving averages (SMAs) was on course to confirm during the first week of March. Alan states that if the $60,000 support fails, the "next leg down" could target levels below $50,000, effectively resetting the bull market structure.

Macro risks are also rising. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted on March 6 that the S&P 500's one-month put-call skew surged to 0.53, its highest level since the 2022 bear market. This metric signals extreme institutional hedging, indicating that traditional finance players are pivoting to a defensive, risk-off posture that could drag high-beta assets like Bitcoin lower.

What to Watch

Traders should monitor the $60,000 primary support level closely; a daily close below this could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. On the upside, the 200-day EMA at $72,604 remains the line in the sand for bulls to regain control. Additionally, the March 27 options expiry will likely act as a gravitational force, with price action expected to be volatile around the $75,000 gamma strike as dealers hedge their exposure.