Bitcoin Stalls at $75K Resistance as Options Expiry Looms March 18, 2026

Bitcoin Stalls at $75K Resistance as Options Expiry Looms March 18, 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $73,950 as of March 18, 2026, marking a negative 24-hour change of approximately -0.29% with trading volume reaching approximately $137.6 billion. The asset briefly surged past $76,000 on March 17, 2026, before retreating to the $73,500-$74,000 range due to intensified selling pressure. This price action coincides with a spike in exchange inflows, suggesting traders are positioning for potential volatility around the psychological $75,000 level.

• BTC price $73,950 as of March 18, 2026.
• 24h trading volume $137.6 billion as of March 18, 2026.
• Weekly spot ETF inflows totaled $763M ending March 17, 2026.

Background

The current market structure reflects a transition from spot-led accumulation to a derivatives-driven rally. CryptoQuant analysis reports a structural vulnerability as the market faces this divergence between price and open interest. Derivatives data from Greeks.live indicates that quarterly options expiring on March 27, 2026, account for over 40% of total open interest, with heavy concentration in $75,000 call options.

This concentration creates a "gamma wall," where market makers must hedge their exposure as price approaches the strike level. Simultaneously, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $763 million in the week leading up to March 17, 2026, marking the third consecutive week of inflows. This institutional demand provides a potential floor, even as derivatives traders express caution.

The Bull Case

Proponents argue that the heavy options concentration could fuel upward momentum rather than suppress it. Market analysts at Greeks.live note that a break above $75,000 could trigger a "gamma squeeze" where market makers are forced to buy BTC to hedge their short call exposure, accelerating upward momentum.

Keith Alan from Material Indicators suggests that if bulls successfully flip the $75k psychological resistance, the next targets are the Q2 2025 Timescape levels at $78.3k and $82.5k. The sustained ETF inflows support this thesis, indicating that long-term holders and institutions are absorbing supply despite short-term resistance.

The Bear Case

Conversely, on-chain analysts warn of a potential "bull trap." Easy On Chain from CryptoQuant warns of structural vulnerability, noting that the Coinbase Premium Index is dipping into negative territory, indicating a lack of U.S. spot demand to support the current derivatives-led rally.

MAC_D from CryptoQuant highlights a divergence between price and open interest on the 1-hour timeframe, suggesting that futures traders are reluctant to take on additional risk, which could lead to a reversal. If the $75,000 level holds as resistance, the lack of spot support could trigger a liquidation cascade among leveraged long positions.

What to Watch

Traders should monitor the Coinbase Premium Index for signs of renewed U.S. institutional buying. A return to positive territory would validate the bullish breakout scenario. Additionally, the March 27, 2026 options expiry will be a critical event; volatility is expected to increase as market makers adjust hedges closer to the settlement date.

• 40% of total options open interest expires March 27, 2026.
• Coinbase Premium Index negative as of March 17, 2026.

Key levels to watch include the $75,000 resistance and the $73,500 support. A daily close above $75,000 would invalidate the bearish divergence thesis, while a drop below $73,500 could signal a deeper correction toward $70,000.