Bitcoin Tests $68K Support as Gold Enters Bear Market

Bitcoin is trading near $68,500–$70,000 as of March 18, 2026, facing a critical support test while gold enters a technical bear market. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded mild inflows of $95.18 million for the week ending March 18, 2026, signaling institutional caution amid geopolitical uncertainty.

• Bitcoin price holds near $68,500 as of March 18, 2026, testing the 200-week EMA support.
• Gold prices dropped over 22% from their January 2026 record highs, not since February 28, 2026.
• Traders increased buying of put options in the $50,000–$60,000 range as of March 18, 2026.

What Happened

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a volatile market structure, with price action hovering around the $68,500 level as of March 18, 2026 Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC seesaws around $68,000. The asset has seen a 24-hour change reflecting consolidation, as traders react to diverging signals from traditional safe-haven assets. Unlike previous cycles where gold and Bitcoin often correlated during crises, gold has entered a technical bear market in March 2026, with prices dropping over 22% from their January 2026 record highs, not since February 28, 2026 Gold Silver Rate Crash Today Live Updates (23 March, 2026) Gold prices dropped over 22% from their January 2026 record highs.

:::chart BTC 30d

Derivatives data from Deribit as of March 18, 2026, shows increased buying of put options in the $50,000–$60,000 range, indicating traders are hedging against a potential drawdown Why are traders still bracing for a drop toward $50k when Bitcoin is beating gold and stocks?. This hedging activity contrasts with the mild inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $95.18 million for the week ending March 18, 2026 Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC seesaws around $68,000. The combination of price stagnation and defensive positioning suggests a market awaiting clearer macroeconomic directives.

Background

The decoupling of Bitcoin from equities in the short term has acted as a potential geopolitical hedge alongside gold, though this correlation remains volatile as of March 18, 2026. Historically, gold serves as a primary safe-haven asset during conflict, but its failure to rally during the Middle East conflict has challenged this narrative, leading to a rotation of capital into other assets as of March 2026 Gold bear market and sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week.

The 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $68,300 has become a critical battleground for Bitcoin bulls to maintain market structure as of March 18, 2026. This technical level often signifies the long-term trend health, and losing it could trigger deeper corrective measures. The geopolitical landscape, specifically the Iran conflict initial phases, saw Bitcoin demonstrate resilience by holding firm while gold and traditional equities faltered, according to market observers via MEXC News.

The Bull Case

James Easto, a Technical Analyst, argues that the 'bottom is in' for the BTC/Gold ratio, suggesting the stage is set for a recovery similar to the post-November 2022 cycle. Easto points to the resilience Bitcoin demonstrated during the initial phases of the Iran conflict, where it held firm against resistance while traditional assets faltered. This perspective suggests that the current consolidation near $68,000 is a accumulation zone rather than a distribution phase. Bulls believe that if the $68,300 EMA support holds, the structural integrity of the market remains intact, allowing for a potential rebound once geopolitical clarity emerges.

The Bear Case

Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist at City Index, warns that Bitcoin's rebound has hit a ceiling and that a sustained move below near-term support would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Boutros highlights the increased buying of put options in the $50,000–$60,000 range as a signal that professional traders expect further downside. Additionally, trader CrypNuevo forecasts that the market will remain range-bound and suggests a potential price rotation to $65,000 in the near term due to geopolitical uncertainty. The bearish perspective emphasizes that mild ETF inflows of $95.18 million indicate institutional caution rather than conviction.

What to Watch

Investors should monitor the $68,300 200-week EMA level as a key technical threshold. A break below this level could invalidate the bullish structural argument. Secondly, weekly ETF flow data will provide insight into institutional sentiment; continued mild inflows may suggest a lack of aggressive buying pressure. Finally, geopolitical developments regarding the Middle East conflict will likely drive volatility in both gold and Bitcoin correlations. Traders are watching for any shift in the safe-haven narrative that could redirect capital flows between these assets.

BTC Range-Bound Until Geopolitical Clarity | 70% Confidence | Neutral | BTC | 14 days | Mild ETF inflows and derivatives hedging suggest limited upside volatility until macro clarity emerges.

Sources

• Gold bear market and sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week | CoinTelegraph
• Gold Silver Rate Crash Today Live Updates (23 March, 2026) | The Economic Times
• Why are traders still bracing for a drop toward $50k when Bitcoin is beating gold and stocks? | CryptoSlate
• Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC seesaws around $68,000 | Mitrade
• Gold prices dropped over 22% from their January 2026 record highs | Benzinga