Polymarket Resolves Oilers Win at 100% After 4-3 Upset
Polymarket's Oilers vs. Avalanche prediction market resolved at 100% for 'Yes' after Edmonton's 4-3 victory on March 10, 2026, at Ball Arena in Denver.
- 01Edmonton snapped Colorado's five-game winning streak with a 4-3 victory on March 10, 2026
- 02Ryan Nugent-Hopkins recorded his third multi-goal game of the season, scoring twice in the first two periods
- 03Tristan Jarry earned the win in relief, stopping 11 of 12 shots after entering the game in the second period
- 04Polymarket 'Yes' shares resolved at 100% (\$1.00) on March 11, 2026
- 05Oilers moved into second place in Pacific Division with 72 points as of March 11, 2026
What Happened
Polymarket's NHL prediction market for the Edmonton Oilers vs. Colorado Avalanche game resolved at 100% for the "Yes" outcome (Oilers win) on March 11, 2026, following Edmonton's 4-3 road victory SOURCE. The Oilers entered as underdogs against Colorado's 43-11-9 record but secured the win via Connor McDavid's power-play goal with 10:57 remaining in the third period SOURCE.
The winning shares, which traded below 40 cents pre-game, settled at $1.00 per share upon resolution. Polymarket's oracle confirmed the outcome using official NHL data feeds within 2 hours of game conclusion.
Background
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow traders to buy shares on binary outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probability. The Oilers' victory represented a significant underdog play against the league-leading Avalanche, who held a 43-11-9 record as of March 11, 2026 SOURCE.
The game featured a critical turning point when Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon received a five-minute major for goaltender interference, enabling Edmonton's 50% power-play conversion (2 for 4) SOURCE.
The Bull Case
Jamie Umbach of EdmontonOilers.com noted the team "rose to the challenge" against the league-leading Avalanche, securing critical points to climb into second place in the Pacific Division with 72 points as of March 11, 2026. Polymarket traders who backed the "Yes" outcome captured approximately 150% returns on shares purchased pre-game.
The Bear Case
Coby Maeir of ColoradoAvalanche.com attributed the loss to undisciplined play, specifically the MacKinnon penalty that exposed Colorado's penalty kill. Nick Martin of Action Network noted the Avalanche's league-leading 83.1% penalty kill failed during the critical third-period stretch when McDavid scored the winner.
What to Watch
- Polymarket's next NHL markets for March 11-12, 2026 games
- Oilers' playoff positioning with 32-25-8 record as of March 11, 2026
- Avalanche response after snapping five-game winning streak
- Trading volume on Polymarket sports markets following high-profile resolution
:::chart POLY 7d
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Edmonton snapped Colorado's five-game winning streak with a 4-3 victory on March 10, 2026
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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins recorded his third multi-goal game of the season
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Tristan Jarry earned the win in relief, stopping 11 of 12 shots after entering in the second period