Polymarket Shows 6% BTC Up Probability as Price Falls to $76,900
Bitcoin traders on Polymarket assign just 6% probability to BTC closing higher on May 18, 2026, as price drops below $77,000 amid $661M in liquidations and $1B ETF outflows.
- 01Polymarket traders assign only 6% probability to Bitcoin closing higher on May 18, 2026
- 02$661 million in crypto liquidations occurred in 24 hours, 95% from long positions
- 03Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1 billion in net outflows for the week ending May 18, 2026
- 04Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 27 (Fear) as of May 18, 2026
- 05Bitcoin trading near $76,900 after falling below $78,000 and $80,000 support levels
What Happened
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $76,900 as of May 18, 2026, representing a significant decline after falling below the $78,000 and $80,000 support levels according to Invezz. Market sentiment has shifted negative amid significant liquidations and institutional outflows.
The sentiment shift coincides with crypto liquidations exceeding $661 million in the 24 hours leading up to May 18, 2026, with approximately 95% of these liquidations originating from bullish long positions reports Crypto.news. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1 billion in net outflows during the week ending May 18, 2026, ending a previous multi-week inflow streak reports Crypto.news.
Background
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 27 (Fear) as of May 18, 2026, indicating heightened market anxiety. Bitcoin's price decline below $77,000 coincided with a broader market sell-off, with total crypto market capitalization falling approximately 3.8% in 24 hours.
Macroeconomic pressures are cited as primary drivers for the reduced risk appetite. U.S. inflation data shows sticky CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6%, while rising oil prices pushed WTI crude above $107 per barrel.
The Bull Case
Jeff Ko from CoinEx argues that institutional adoption via spot ETFs and corporate asset allocation provides a stronger floor than in previous cycles according to Invezz. Ko suggests this structural support could potentially prevent a 70-80% retracement despite historical "sell in May" patterns that have affected crypto markets in prior years.
The bullish perspective emphasizes that temporary ETF outflows do not necessarily indicate long-term institutional abandonment, but rather short-term portfolio rebalancing amid macro uncertainty.
The Bear Case
Crispus Nyaga from DailyForex forecasts further downside toward $75,000 and potentially $70,000, citing a breakdown below the rising wedge pattern and the 25-day moving average according to Invezz.
Rony Roy from Invezz advises a short position on BTC-USD, noting that price is below the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs with no bullish divergence, and warns of forced selling toward $76,000 according to Invezz.
Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, warns that if Bitcoin remains below $78,000, the probability of a new wave of market capitulation increases significantly reports Crypto.news.
What to Watch
- $78,000 resistance level: A break above this threshold could shift sentiment and invalidate bearish technical setups
- ETF flow data: Weekly inflow/outflow figures will indicate whether institutional demand is recovering
- Liquidation cascade levels: $75,000 and $70,000 represent key support zones where additional long liquidations could accelerate
- Macro data releases: Upcoming U.S. inflation and employment figures will influence risk appetite across crypto markets
Key Market Data
- Liquidations: $661 million in crypto liquidations occurred in 24 hours, 95% from long positions
- ETF Flows: Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1 billion in net outflows for the week ending May 18, 2026
- Sentiment: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 27 (Fear) as of May 18, 2026
- Outlook: Based on 95% long liquidation ratio, $1B ETF outflows, and technical breakdown below key moving averages, short-term sentiment remains bearish