Polymarket Traders See 100% Odds BTC Holds $60k Through March 8
Despite "Extreme Fear" gripping the market following a disappointing U.S. jobs report, prediction markets are signaling absolute certainty that Bitcoin will defend the $60,000 level this weekend. As of March 06, 2026, traders on Polymarket have priced the probability of Bitcoin trading above $60,000 on March 8 at nearly 100%, even as the asset trades 46% below its 2025 all-time high.
- 01Polymarket traders assign a 100% probability to Bitcoin holding above $60,000 through March 8, 2026.
- 02Bitcoin is trading at $67,294 as of March 06, 2026, down 46% from its October 2025 all-time high.
- 03Institutional selling pressure has eased significantly, with February ETF outflows dropping 94% month-over-month to $206.5 million.
- 04The Bitcoin network hashrate remains robust at 1,068 EH/s (1.06 Zettahash/s) as of March 02, 2026.
- 05U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 60,000 in February 2026, creating a complex macro environment for risk assets.
What Happened
As of March 06, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $67,294, representing a 1.44% decline over the last 24 hours 21m.news Live Data. Despite this daily dip and a broader market sentiment reading of 14 (Extreme Fear), prediction market participants are exhibiting high conviction in Bitcoin's short-term floor.
On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, shares for the event "Bitcoin above $60,000 on March 8?" are trading between 99.9¢ and 100¢, implying a 100% probability that the support level will hold through the weekend Polymarket. This conviction comes amidst a complex macro backdrop; the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report earlier today, March 6, revealing a shock contraction. The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026, missing the consensus forecast of a 60,000 gain. January's figure was also revised down to 126,000 from 130,000 Investing.com.
:::chart BTC 7d
While the negative jobs data suggests a rapidly cooling economy—typically a catalyst for Federal Reserve liquidity easing—Bitcoin's immediate reaction has been muted, reflecting a "pre-data de-risking" trend noted by analysts earlier in the week.
Background
Bitcoin is currently navigating a significant correction phase, trading 46% below its all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 6, 2025. The market has spent the early months of 2026 digesting the post-peak distribution, with institutional flows playing a decisive role.
Institutional selling pressure, which dominated Q4 2025, appears to be abating. Spot ETF outflows for February 2026 dropped to $206.5 million, a 94% decrease from the $3.48 billion peak observed in November 2025 BeInCrypto.
Simultaneously, the network's physical security remains near record highs. The 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of the network hashrate stood at 1,068 EH/s (1.06 Zettahash/s) as of March 02, 2026 Hashrate Index. This resilience follows a brief dip in January caused by weather-related power curtailments in Texas, confirming that the mining sector has stabilized despite the lower price environment.
The Bull Case
The prevailing bullish thesis rests on seller exhaustion and the anticipation of a liquidity cycle turn. Henrik Zeberg, a prominent macro economist, maintains a risk-on outlook, projecting a primary scenario where Bitcoin targets $110,000–$120,000 later in March 2026. Zeberg cites renewed ETF inflows and a shift in risk sentiment as key drivers BeInCrypto.
Supporting this view, Kevin Crowther, Founder of KC Private Wealth, argues that the base case for March is flat to slightly positive price action. Crowther points to on-chain data indicating that long-term holder selling decreased by 87% through February, suggesting the supply side is drying up BeInCrypto.
Furthermore, Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit, interprets recent hashrate fluctuations not as capitulation, but as strategic diversification by miners, reinforcing the network's structural integrity Hashrate Index.
The Bear Case
Conversely, skepticism remains regarding the depth of the current correction. Standard Chartered recently revised its 2026 year-end Bitcoin price target downward by 33%, moving from $150,000 to $100,000 as of February 2026, citing slower-than-expected institutional adoption in the new year BeInCrypto.
Technical analysts at BeInCrypto have flagged a potential "bear flag" pattern on the daily chart. They warn that if the $62,300 support level is decisively broken, the asset risks a 39% drop, which would invalidate the current consolidation thesis BeInCrypto.
Phemex analysts also noted that Bitcoin's recent rejection at $73,500 was driven by macro uncertainty, and the rising correlation with the S&P 500 (0.55 as of March 1) exposes crypto to broader equity market volatility Phemex/Pintu News.
What to Watch
Traders should monitor the $62,300 support level closely over the weekend. While Polymarket bettors are confident $60,000 is safe for now, a breach of $62,300 could trigger algorithmic selling.
Additionally, watch for the market's digested response to the NFP data next week. If the shock contraction in employment translates into dovish Fed repricing, the correlation with traditional finance could flip from a liability to a tailwind.