Strive Strategist Forecasts $11M Bitcoin by 2036 on AI Deflation Thesis

What Happened

Joe Burnett, Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive Asset Management, published a comprehensive research report on March 2, 2026, outlining a base-case scenario where Bitcoin reaches $11 million by the first quarter of 2036.

As of March 03, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $68,257, down 0.66% in the last 24 hours. Burnett’s target represents a potential 176-fold increase from current levels over the next decade.

The report argues that the convergence of Bitcoin’s absolute scarcity and the deflationary pressures of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will fundamentally alter global asset pricing. According to Cointelegraph, the model projects global wealth to compound at a 7% annual rate, reaching nearly $1,970 trillion by 2036. For Bitcoin to hit the $11 million mark, it would need to capture approximately 12% of this total global value, up from roughly 0.2% today.

Strive Asset Management is not merely an observer; the firm became the 11th largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally after acquiring Semler Scientific in January 2026, according to Stocktitan.

Background: The AI Deflation Thesis

The core of Burnett's argument is macroeconomic rather than purely technological. He posits that AI will act as a massive deflationary force by drastically reducing the cost of goods and services. While falling prices are generally positive for consumers, they are catastrophic for a global financial system built on debt.

"In a world where AI drives the marginal cost of production toward zero, nominal GDP would naturally contract," Burnett explains in the report. However, because global debt liabilities are fixed in nominal terms, a contraction in GDP would trigger mass defaults.

To prevent a deflationary spiral and sovereign debt collapse, Burnett argues that central banks—including the Federal Reserve—will be forced to expand the money supply at unprecedented rates. This liquidity injection is expected to flow into assets with "absolute scarcity," primarily benefiting Bitcoin.

The Bull Case

Burnett is not alone in linking AI advancement to Bitcoin appreciation. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, has similarly argued that the disruption caused by AI will necessitate government intervention.

Speaking to DL News in February 2026, Hayes stated that AI-driven job losses would trigger a debt crisis, forcing the Federal Reserve to print money. "That is ultimately good for credit-sensitive assets like Bitcoin," Hayes noted, suggesting that the only way to maintain social stability in an automated economy is through monetary debasement.

Additionally, Murray A. Rudd of Satoshi Action Education has provided statistical backing for extreme valuations. His probabilistic models suggest a 75% chance of Bitcoin exceeding $4.81 million by 2036, with outlier scenarios reaching as high as $50 million if supply-demand imbalances become acute.

The Bear Case

Despite the theoretical alignment of AI and Bitcoin, financial analysts warn that the specific $11 million target requires historically unprecedented growth.

Nic Puckrin, an analyst at Coin Bureau, points out the sheer scale of the valuation. "An $11 million Bitcoin implies a market cap of $230 trillion," Puckrin noted. "That is roughly double the current global GDP and ten times the current US M2 money supply. While directionally the thesis has merit, assuming a sustained 53% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for a decade for an asset already worth $1.3 trillion is mathematically aggressive."

Furthermore, technical analysis from Phemex suggests more grounded expectations. Their analysts highlight that traditional time-series models, such as ARIMA, project a 2036 price closer to $150,000. They caution that while macro-theses are compelling, they often underestimate the friction of capital rotation and regulatory headwinds.

What to Watch

Investors tracking this thesis should monitor three key metrics over the coming quarters:

1. Global M2 Expansion: The correlation between central bank balance sheets and Bitcoin price remains the strongest indicator of the "debasement trade."
2. Corporate Adoption: As a top corporate holder, Strive's continued accumulation (or lack thereof) will signal their institutional conviction in their own model.
3. AI-CPI Divergence: Watch for signs that AI adoption is actually lowering CPI (Consumer Price Index), which would trigger the central bank response Burnett predicts.