XRP Tests $1.35 Support as Standard Chartered Cuts Target to $2.80
XRP is trading under pressure near $1.36 as of March 06, 2026, facing a confluence of record ETF outflows and a significant price target downgrade from Standard Chartered, forcing traders to defend the critical $1.35 support level.
- 01XRP price declined 2.90% to $1.3633 on March 06, 2026, testing the $1.35 support.
- 02Spot XRP ETFs saw $16.62 million in outflows on March 06, the largest daily withdrawal of the month.
- 03Standard Chartered lowered its year-end 2026 XRP forecast from $8.00 to $2.80 on March 08.
- 04Binance exchange reserves dropped to $3.9 billion as of March 06, signaling potential supply tightening.
What Happened
XRP is facing renewed selling pressure, closing the trading week at approximately $1.3633, a 2.90% decline as of March 06, 2026. The asset fell to an intraday low of $1.3463, testing the psychological support at $1.35. This price action coincides with a shift in institutional sentiment; spot XRP ETFs recorded their largest monthly withdrawal on March 06, 2026, totaling $16.62 million in net outflows. 21Shares led the exodus with $10.60 million in withdrawals.
Adding to the bearish momentum, market participants are revisiting Standard Chartered's mid-February revision of its year-end 2026 XRP price target. The bank slashed its forecast by 65%, dropping the target from $8.00 to $2.80. While the cut occurred earlier in the quarter, the bearish outlook has gained renewed traction alongside recent ETF outflows, with analysts citing macroeconomic headwinds and a risk-off rotation driven by global instability.
:::chart XRP 7d
Background
Despite the recent price weakness, Ripple has continued to cement its role in traditional financial infrastructure. On March 02, 2026, Ripple's 'Ripple Prime' was officially added to the DTCC's NSCC Market Participant Identifiers directory. This integration allows institutional post-trade volumes to route onto the XRP Ledger, a critical step for large-scale adoption.
The market is also still navigating the aftermath of the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit, which concluded in August 2025. While the final judgment clarified that retail XRP sales are not securities and imposed a $50 million settlement, the regulatory clarity has not yet translated into the parabolic run many investors anticipated for early 2026.
The Bull Case
Despite the price dip, on-chain metrics suggest a potential supply crunch. Amr Taha, an analyst at CryptoQuant, noted a significant divergence between price and exchange reserves. "Binance XRP reserves have plunged to $3.9 billion as of March 06," Taha reported. A sharp drop in exchange reserves typically indicates that investors are moving assets to cold storage, reducing the immediate sell-side pressure and potentially setting the stage for a supply shock.
Furthermore, Ripple President Monica Long remains optimistic about the asset's utility. She expects full-scale institutional adoption of the XRP Ledger in 2026, driven by the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. Ayanfe Fakunle of Disruption Banking echoes this sentiment, suggesting a long-term bull case of $15–$30 if XRP successfully integrates as functional financial infrastructure.
The Bear Case
Conversely, the macroeconomic environment presents significant hurdles. Standard Chartered's revised forecast of $2.80 highlights the impact of external factors, specifically pointing to an Iran war-driven oil shock and a strong US dollar as primary reasons for the downgraded outlook. In a risk-off environment, capital tends to flee high-beta assets like XRP in favor of safe havens or Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, Luisa Crawford of MEXC News warns that the current support levels are fragile. She notes that failure to hold the $1.28–$1.31 support zone could accelerate selling toward the $1.00 psychological handle. Additionally, WealthManager, an analyst at KuCoin, observed weakening relative strength in the XRP/BTC pair, signaling that capital is favoring Bitcoin over XRP during this period of volatility.
What to Watch
Traders should monitor the $1.35 level closely; a daily close below this could trigger a test of the $1.28 support zone identified by Crawford. On the institutional front, watch for any reversal in ETF flows next week to see if the March 06 outflows were an anomaly or the start of a trend. Finally, the implementation of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act remains a key legislative catalyst that could invalidate the bearish macro thesis if it spurs immediate enterprise adoption.